The parliamentary record suggests key “Independents” Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor will back the Greens in seeking a high carbon price, and a big emissions reduction target, to help Julia Gillard break her promise on a carbon tax – and give the extreme Greens a comprehensive and extraordinary victory.

Mr Oakeshott has repeatedly called on the parliament to “let the market rip” and “let the science fly” on climate change. He told parliament during the debate on Labor’s original CPRS that he believed Professor Ross Garnaut was right. Professor Garnaut recommended a 25% cut in emissions by 2020 and 90% by 2050. Like Professor Garnaut, Mr Oakeshott rejected widespread concessions to industry.

Mr Oakeshott favored an independent authority to make many of the unpopular decisions concerning a price on carbon, declaring (June 4, 2009) as he sought support for his plan for politicians to transfer their responsibility: “…who is going to make the unpopular decision in the future when fuel-credits are dropped, and fuel prices rise?”

And despite the fact Mr Oakeshott said he would vote for the Prime Minister’s carbon tax on the spot when it was announced last week, he has previously opposed  a carbon tax  as “a huge cost on the community of Australia” because it would be “a direct and significant cost on consumables throughout Australia.” (October 29, 2009.) He was back in tune with the Greens a few months later, however, when he said the Greens’ “temporary solution” – a carbon tax morphing into a carbon trading regime was  “ a sensible…. option.” (February 10, 2010.) This is precisely what is now being put forward.

Mr Windsor introduced into the Parliament a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2020 – six times the size of the bipartisanly supported target of 5%. He described the 5% target as “nonsensical” and   (February 10, 2010) as “far too low.”

“The price of a tonne of carbon sufficient to force the pace of mitigation to the sort of target Mr Windsor favors would have to be massive,” Senator Boswell said. “Mr Oakeshott’s great keenness to let the market rip and the science fly indicates that, like Mr Windsor, he is much closer to the Greens on this issue than he is to the left wing Labor Prime Minister.

The Greens policy is for a “minimum” 40% reduction in emissions by 2020, but Leader Bob Brown said last week he would consider 25%.

“Unless the Prime Minister is prepared to defy the Greens, Mr Oakeshott, and Mr Windsor, Australia may be headed for a price on carbon, and an emissions target, well ahead of the numbers sought by Mr Rudd not two years ago, and more than high enough to cripple the Australian economy - for not the slightest impact on climate change.”

ENDS